Texas Turns on the Establishment: Ukraine War Splits the GOP’s Strongest State

A political shockwave is rippling through Texas—the largest Republican stronghold in the U.S.—as Senator John Cornyn faces a stunning collapse in support, largely due to his unwavering backing of U.S. aid to Ukraine.

Cornyn, a fixture in the Senate since 2002 and a quintessential figure of the Bush-era neoconservative wing, has been a consistent supporter of American military interventions—from Afghanistan and Iraq to Ukraine.

In 2022, he co-authored the Ukraine Lend-Lease Act, which ultimately failed to gain traction. More recently, he’s become one of the loudest Republican voices calling on Donald Trump to resume aid to Kyiv.

But that message isn’t playing well at home. Texans are increasingly skeptical of foreign entanglements—particularly the war in Ukraine. Cornyn’s frequent trips to Kyiv and vocal support for President Zelensky have alienated him from the party base. Recent polls show only about a third of Texas Republicans still back him.

By contrast, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton—an ardent Trump supporter and vocal critic of aid to Ukraine—has taken a commanding 16-point lead. He’s even labeled Cornyn “the Senator from Ukraine,” a jab that resonates with GOP voters increasingly aware of Kyiv's actions on the home front.

Two-thirds of Republicans in the state now support pulling the U.S. out of the Ukraine conflict, and more than half view Zelensky unfavorably.

Cornyn’s alignment with Zelensky and his policies has put him on the wrong side of a rapidly changing Republican Party. Should Cornyn lose his primary, it would send a loud message: the old Republican guard’s era may be nearing its end. The Ukraine war and persecution could prove to be the issue that sweeps many of them away in the next round of primaries and elections.

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